Pound-to-Euro Price Forecast: Neutral Bias Around 1.187

June 9, 2025 - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Euro Price Forecast: Neutral Bias Around 1.187

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) was mostly flat on Monday amid a lack of economic data and mixed market mood.

At the time of writing, GBPEUR was trading at €1.1869, having wavered in a narrow range since the start of trade.

The Pound (GBP) held its ground on Monday, supported by a wave of technology-focused developments that injected some optimism into an otherwise quiet trading day for UK markets.

In the absence of major UK economic data, the spotlight turned to corporate and regulatory news. Notably, US semiconductor giant Qualcomm unveiled a $2.4 billion takeover of UK-based chip designer Alphawave. The acquisition marks a significant vote of confidence in Britain’s tech sector and helped prop up Sterling.

Adding to the upbeat tone, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced plans to launch a revamped regulatory sandbox designed to accelerate the adoption of artificial intelligence in financial services. The initiative will give financial firms access to Nvidia’s advanced AI tools, aiming to foster innovation while fulfilling the UK government’s ambitions to position the country as a leader in fintech and high-growth tech sectors.

However, these positive developments weren’t enough to provide the Pound with a meaningful boost, as GBP investors were somewhat cautious ahead of Tuesday’s UK jobs data.

The Euro (EUR) drifted on Monday, with little movement in either direction as a quiet data calendar and an indecisive market mood left the single currency without a strong driver.


With no major Eurozone economic releases to shape sentiment, EUR was largely at the mercy of external factors. The generally risk-off tone across global markets did little to bolster the traditionally safer Euro, particularly as investors weighed mixed signals from Asia.

Initial optimism surrounding US-China trade talks in London helped steady nerves in early trading, but this was quickly undermined by a raft of weak Chinese economic indicators. A sharper-than-expected drop in exports and fresh signs of disinflation dampened risk appetite, pushing European equity markets into the red as the session opened.

Meanwhile, the Euro’s strong inverse relationship with the US Dollar (USD), which softened ahead of the anticipated US-China discussions, helped to keep EUR afloat.

Looking ahead, Tuesday’s spotlight falls on the UK labour market, with fresh employment figures likely to set the tone for Sterling. Economists expect the unemployment rate to tick higher, rising from 4.5% to 4.6% in the three months to April. If confirmed, this would mark the highest jobless rate since the summer of 2021, when the UK was emerging from pandemic restrictions.

A rise in unemployment could weigh on the Pound, reinforcing concerns about a cooling labour market and increasing speculation about future Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cuts.

However, any downside may be cushioned by strong wage growth figures. Average earnings are expected to remain elevated, continuing to outpace inflation and complicating the BoE’s path to looser policy.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s economic calendar remains sparse, leaving the Euro without a clear catalyst. In the absence of domestic data, EUR movement is likely to be shaped by broader market trends and USD dynamics.


If US-China trade talks show signs of progress then this could cheer markets and support USD, potentially putting pressure on the single currency. Conversely, a more cautious mood or further Dollar softness could offer EUR some support.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts