Bullish Pound to Dollar Rate in Push to "Fresh Multi-Year Highs"

June 16, 2025 - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Bullish Pound to Dollar Rate in Push to "Fresh Multi-Year Highs"

Looking ahead, movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate on Tuesday is likely to hinge on the latest US retail sales figures.

May’s report is forecast to show a sharp drop in consumer spending, with sales expected to fall to -0.7%, down from April’s modest 0.1% increase.

If confirmed, the data could reinforce concerns about a slowdown in the US economy and add to speculation that the Federal Reserve may be edging closer to cutting interest rates, potentially extending pressure on the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, with no UK economic data scheduled for release, the Pound may remain sensitive to broader market sentiment throughout the session.

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate was trapped in a narrow range despite Monday’s increase in risk appetite.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3580, virtually unchanged from the start of Monday’s session.


The US Dollar (USD) stumbled at the start of the week, giving up ground as an upbeat market sentiment overshadowed lingering concerns over Middle Eastern tensions.

Despite Israel’s strike on Iran late last week and signs of further escalation over the weekend, markets reacted with relative calm, prompting a rise in risk appetite.

Jochen Stanzl, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets explained: ‘…The market currently anticipates a limited conflict, though there is little indication that hostilities will end quickly. It is expected that fighting will continue unabated this week, albeit on a limited scale…’

This shift in mood saw investors pull back from safe-haven assets, leaving the ‘Greenback’ broadly weaker against its
more risk-sensitive peers.

The Pound (GBP) faltered on Monday, weakening against most major currencies as a risk-on sentiment swept through global markets.

Sterling slipped against its risk-sensitive peers like the Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD), in line with broader market optimism.

However, it also struggled to recover against safe-haven currencies, weighed down by renewed speculation over potential Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cuts.


Following a string of underwhelming UK economic releases last week, including disappointing jobs and GDP figures, investors ramped up bets on a dovish pivot from the BoE, limiting GBP’s appeal at the start of the week.

"GBP is entering Monday’s NA session flat vs. the USD, a relative underperformer in an environment of modest risk appetite and mild USD weakness," says Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank.

"Domestic risk is elevated this week as markets await Wednesday’s CPI release, coming just ahead of Thursday’s BoE where policymakers are expected to deliver a widely anticipated hold.

"Recent data disappointments have delivered an adjustment in expectations for the BoE, building in slightly more easing into the end of the year with markets now pricing nearly two 25bpt cuts.

"GBPUSD remains well supported as it continues to push to fresh multi-year highs.

"The RSI is bullish but well short of overbought levels, and there appear to be no major resistance levels ahead of 1.3750.

"We look to near-term support around 1.3520 and near-term resistance in the lower 1.36s."

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts