GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Outlook is "Neutral-Bearish" say Scotiabank

April 9, 2025 - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Outlook is "Neutral-Bearish" say Scotiabank

Looking at the near-term outlook, the Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade sideways against the US Dollar (USD) , according to the latest technical analysis by FX strategists at Scotiabank.

"GBPUSD’s sharp reversal of last week’s delivered a break of its one-month range and a push to fresh local lows in the mid/lower-1.28s" says Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank.

"The RSI has drifted below 50, in bearish territory, and there doesn’t appear to be any clear support ahead of the lower 1.27s."

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate firmed on Wednesday as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs took effect.

On Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) weakened against most of its major counterparts as Trump's tariffs took effect, stoking concerns about a potential US recession.

With the implementation of significant tariffs, such as a 104% levy on Chinese imports, several countries, including China, pledged to respond.

These developments further clouded the outlook for the US economy, intensifying fears of an economic downturn.


As global markets absorbed the news of the escalating trade war, sentiment improved, reducing the appeal of the USD as a safe-haven currency and leading to its decline against many of its peers.

On Wednesday, the Pound (GBP) experienced fluctuations against most of its peers due to a lack of UK economic data, causing it to move in line with broader market sentiment.

In the risk-on environment, GBP exchange rates seesawed, weakening against riskier currencies while holding steady against safe-haven currencies.

This highlighted the Pound's increasing sensitivity to market risk.

With no major UK economic data to influence trading, GBP exchange rates largely followed the uptick in risk appetite throughout much of Wednesday's European trading session.

Looking ahead, the main catalyst of movement for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate on Thursday will likely be the latest FOMC meeting minutes.

Set to be released on Wednesday evening, these minutes could add further volatility to an already turbulent US Dollar.


For the Pound, Thursday’s economic calendar will once again be devoid of UK data, meaning GBP exchange rates are likely to continue trading in line with market sentiment as the week unfolds.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts