Pound to Dollar FX Forecast: GBPUSD "Trend Remains Bullish"

April 25, 2025 - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar FX Forecast: GBPUSD "Trend Remains Bullish"

The Pound to Dollar rate found support below 1.3300 on Friday and traded around 1.3320.

UK equities were able to make further gains, potentially advancing for the 10th successive session which would be the strongest run for over five years.

Scotiabank commented on GBP/USD; “the trend remains bullish, given the sequence of higher lows and higher highs. The RSI is softening but still in bullish territory. Near-term price action appears to have settled within a range roughly bound between support in the low 1.32s and resistance above 1.3400.”

According to Credit Agricole; “GBP is starting to look expensive vs the USD. An important question for FX investors is whether the upcoming UK data releases and global developments could trigger a reversal of recent market trends in the near term.”

US data releases will also be under close scrutiny in the near term given that markets want to see whether tariffs and uncertainty have triggered an impact in the real economy.

Scotiabank commented; “Hard data reports have held up relatively well—perhaps reflecting a burst of activity before tariffs really bite—but optimism on the US economic outlook has been replaced with growing recession concerns.”

Friday’s release reported that there was a small recovery in the April University of Michigan (UoM) consumer confidence index to 52.2 from the flash reading of 50.8, but still below the March reading of 57.0. The revision was due to gains in current conditions while expectations made only a marginal recovery.


UoM surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu commented; “Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 8% from March. While the April decline in current conditions was modest, the expectations index plummeted with drop-offs in personal finances as well as business conditions. Expectations have fallen a precipitous 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession.”

ING commented; “As to the dollar more broadly, it could find a little support as trade tensions calm a little. The next big chapter here will be whether all this volatility has hit real world decisions - especially in the US jobs market. There is plenty of US jobs data released next week and any deterioration here could trigger another round of dollar losses.”

Danske Bank maintains a negative dollar stance; “Longer term, structural challenges like US political shifts, the trade war, and capital rotation away from US assets suggest significant USD downside.”

UK retail sales volumes increased 0.4% for March after a revised 0.7% gain the previous month and compared with consensus forecasts of a 0.3% decline.

According to Scotiabank; “The release is unlikely to influence policymakers ahead of the May 8 BoE rate decision, given the well communicated bias to further accommodation. Markets are pricing in 27bpts of easing for the meeting.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts