Pound to Dollar Forecast: "Bullish Outside Range Reversal" say Analysts

March 24, 2025 - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: "Bullish Outside Range Reversal" say Analysts

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate traded mostly flat on Monday as the UK and the US both released their respective preliminary S&P Global PMIs.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.2925, virtually unchanged from the start of Monday’s session.

Pound (GBP) Stays Strong despite Mixed PMIs

On Monday, the Pound (GBP) held steady against most of its major trading partners after the release of the UK’s preliminary PMI figures for March.

The latest manufacturing PMI declined more sharply than expected, dropping from 46.9 to 44.6, which was below the forecast of 46.4.

However, there was a bright spot in the services PMI, which saw a notable increase from 51 to 53.2, surpassing the anticipated decline to 50.9.

This improvement helped support GBP exchange rates at the beginning of the week.

US Dollar (USD) Slips following Domestic PMI Data

On Monday, the US Dollar (USD) weakened against most of its major counterparts following the release of the US's preliminary S&P Global PMI data.

Much like the Pound, the US PMI figures for March were mixed.

The manufacturing sector saw a decline from 52.7 to 49.8, falling short of the expected 51.8.

In contrast, the services sector performed strongly, jumping from 51 to 54.3, which was better than the expected drop to 50.8.

Despite some positive remarks from US President Donald Trump regarding potential flexibility in global tariffs, the 'Greenback' failed to post any gains, as the overall market sentiment remained slightly optimistic.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: UK and US Data to Drive Movement

Looking ahead, the main driver of movement for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate on Tuesday will likely be several economic releases from both the UK and the US.

The UK is scheduled to publish its latest CBI distributive trades figures for March, which are anticipated to show another decline.

If the data matches these forecasts and confirms further weakness in the sector, GBP exchange rates may come under pressure during Tuesday’s European trading session.

On the US side, the latest CB consumer confidence data will be released.

Similarly to the Pound, a decline in the index as expected could weaken the US Dollar on Tuesday.

According to FX strategists at Scotiabank on Monday, "GBPUSD short-term technicals are Bullish."

"Sterling gains are developing strongly on the session.

"A solid rebound from the upper 1.28s has pushed through Friday’s intraday peak after the pound earlier set a minor new low.

"Price is carving out a bullish outside range reversal, in effect, countering the bearish price action that developed late last week.

"Look for gains to extend to the low 1.30s. Resistance is 1.3015 and 1.3120."

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TAGS: American Dollar Forecasts Pound Sterling Forecasts