April 15, 2025 - Written by David Woodsmith
STORY LINK Pound Recovers Against Euro and Dollar as Sterling Outperforms G10 Currencies
Pound Sterling advanced against the euro and US dollar on Monday, with GBPUSD striking a fresh six-month high amid ongoing volatility surrounding US trade policy.
At the time of writing GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3176, up around 0.7% from Monday’s opening levels.
"GBP is up 0.6% vs. the USD and outperforming most of the G10 currencies," says Shaun Osborne, the chief FX strategist at Scotiabank.
"The market tone is risk supportive which should allow participants to focus on data and this week’s employment (Tuesday) and CPI (Wednesday) releases."
The US Dollar (USD) extended its recent downturn at the start of the week as confusion surrounding Washington’s tariff plans continued to undermine confidence in the ‘Greenback’.
Fresh uncertainty was sparked after reports initially hinted that certain electronics might be excluded from the newly announced 145% tariffs on Chinese imports.
However, these reports were swiftly contradicted by President Trump, who insisted that no such exemptions were being made and announced plans for a broader investigation into foreign involvement in the US tech supply chain.
The conflicting messages reinforced concerns over a lack of clarity in US economic policy, leading investors to trim their USD holdings amid heightened policy uncertainty.
The Pound (GBP) advanced on Monday, buoyed by improved risk appetite as investors turned away from the US Dollar.
Optimism that the UK might be able to negotiate favourable trade terms with the US also lent support to Sterling, as traders bet the UK could avoid the full brunt of the new US tariffs.
However, the Pound’s gains were somewhat capped as markets remained wary ahead of upcoming UK employment figures, and amid persistent expectations for a near-term interest rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE).
Looking ahead, the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate could face resistance on Tuesday following the UK’s latest labour market report.
Wage growth is forecast to have eased again in February, which could weigh on the Pound if it boosts the case for another BoE rate cut in May.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar may continue to see choppy trade as tariff rhetoric from the White House keeps investors on edge.
"GBPUSD has recovered back toward its recent highs but has not pushed to fresh gains, despite an impressive five-session rally", says FX strategist Osborne.
"The signals are bullish but hint to caution as we note the negative divergence in momentum, with the RSI failing to confirm the latest gains in spot."
"We look to near-term resistance at 1.32 and look to support around 1.3050."
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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts