Pound to Dollar LIVE: Soft Inflation Print Sends Sterling Past 1.29

April 10, 2025 - Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar LIVE: Soft Inflation Print Sends Sterling Past 1.29

The US Dollar (USD) lost further ground against the Euro (EUR) and Pound Sterling (GBP) following the latest weaker-than-expected US inflation data.

The Pound to Dollar rate jumped to highs just above 1.2950 before settling around 1.2910.

According to Scotiabank; “Fundamentals are shifting in the pound’s favor as markets pare back their expectations for BoE easing, offering support via wider UK -US spreads.”

It added; “the focus is now on the 1.29-1.30 congestion range that had prevailed through much of March and the first couple of trading days in April. Resistance is expected between 1.31 and 1.32 while support is expected below 1.28.”

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate continued to lose ground, however, and retreated to 1.1615 from near 1.1650 ahead of the data with overall Pound confidence still fragile.

US consumer prices declined 0.1% for March compared with consensus forecasts of a 0.1% increase with the year-on-year inflation rate declining to 2.4% from 2.8% and below expectations of 2.5%.

Core prices increased 0.1% compared with expectations of another 0.3% increase with the annual rate slowing to 2.8% from 3.1%.


According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics; “Indexes that increased over the month include personal care, medical care, education, apparel, and new vehicles. The indexes for airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, used cars and trucks, and recreation were among the major indexes that decreased in March.”

The data eased inflation fears to some extent and traders were confident in pricing in at least three Fed interest rate cuts this year.

Goldman Sachs’s Kay Haigh commented; “We expect the Fed’s initial reaction to be cautious, but the risks remain that a sharper than expected slowdown in the economy could result in a resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle.”

According to Scotiabank; “Markets surged in response to the pause news but confidence in US policymaking has been severely dented and markets will remain vulnerable to trade-related headlines while the US and China continue to slug it out.”

It added; “Markets can breathe a sigh of relief but there are still major challenges here.”

There are also still reservations surrounding the UK bond market with the 10-year bond yield traded close to 4.70% from intra-day lows around 4.65%.

According to ING; “any greater slowdown in the UK economy, which would hit revenues/raise welfare spending, would only hit gilts harder. Clearly, then, the gilt market is an Achilles heel for sterling.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts