GBP/USD Prediction: Pound Sterling Outlook Flips "Neutral-Bullish" say Scotiabank

April 10, 2025 - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Prediction: Pound Sterling Outlook Flips "Neutral-Bullish" say Scotiabank

Examining the short-term outlook, the Pound Sterling (GBP) is tipped to extend its recent recovery against the US Dollar (USD), according to the latest technical analysis by FX strategists at Scotiabank.

"GBPUSD’s sharp recovery is notable" says Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank.

"The RSI’s dip into bearish territory (below 50) has proven to be short-lived, and the focus is now on the 1.29-1.30 congestion range that had prevailed through much of March and the first couple of trading days in April.

"Resistance is expected between 1.31 and 1.32 while support is expected below 1.28."

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate advanced on Thursday following news that US President Donald Trump would implement a 90-day delay on most tariffs, sparking renewed market optimism.

The Pound (GBP) benefited from improved risk appetite on Thursday. The UK currency—which tends to perform well in risk-on environments—found support amid broad-based market optimism.

Investors reacted positively to Trump’s decision to shelve a sweeping series of new tariffs for 90 days, opting instead to impose a flat 10% levy on all countries aside from China.


The move triggered a rally in global stock markets and, by extension, helped lift the Pound.

Additionally, the decision prompted traders to reassess their interest rate expectations for the Bank of England (BoE). Earlier in the week, a 25-basis-point cut in May was seen as a near certainty, with some even pricing in a larger 50bps move. However, following the tariff news, the probability of a 25bps cut dropped to 78%.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened on Thursday as demand for safe-haven assets declined amid the improving market mood.

Compounding the pressure on USD were lingering doubts about Trump’s economic strategy.

The initial introduction of tariffs had already been criticised for its lack of economic modelling and potential fallout for the US economy.

Now, the abrupt reversal may have dealt another blow to confidence in the White House’s policy direction, further undermining the Dollar.

Looking to Friday, the Pound could climb higher if the UK’s GDP data meets forecasts. Economists expect February to show a modest 0.1% rebound in growth, following a 0.1% decline in January.


Meanwhile, the latest producer price index could affect the US Dollar. While rising PPI figures could support USD by dampening interest rate cut expectations, they could just as quickly stoke recession fears, thereby weighing on the currency.

Furthermore, the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index may also influence USD. Analysts anticipate another drop in confidence, which could intensify concerns over the US economic outlook and apply further pressure to the Dollar.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts