EUR/USD Outlook: Is Euro to Dollar Rate Forecast to Challenge on 1.15?

April 28, 2025 - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK EUR/USD Outlook: Is Euro to Dollar Rate Forecast to Challenge on 1.15?

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has consolidated around 1.1350 ahead of a big week for US data.

The dollar has managed to stabilise in global markets, but sentiment remains cautious.

According to ING; “Hard data to determine dollar’s next move.”

It added; “The worst case for EUR/USD is probably 1.1250, should US data surprise on the upside. 1.1500 is the risk, should any of this week's job releases suggest that tariff uncertainty has already triggered layoffs.”

On a longer-term view, Goldman Sachs has a 12-month target of 1.20.

US data will be watched closely this week, especially jobs-related releases.

According to HSBC; “Some high-frequency US data for April already point to a bleak picture.”


It added; “Given the steep drop in US survey/soft data, we’d be very surprised if it doesn’t spill over into hard data at all.”

Trade talks will also continue to be watched very closely.

Caution is likely to prevail in the short term, especially if Administration rhetoric does not appear to match reality.

Late on Friday, President Trump stated that Chinese President Xi had called, but this was denied with Beijing stating that there had been no trade negotiations.

According to Bank of America; “USD could depreciate faster if trade negotiations fail. De-escalation in the trade war and re-focus on pro-growth policies could help the USD recover, but we would not expect risk premium to fully vanquish any time soon.”

It added; “US trade policies and the surrounding uncertainty are bad for Europe, but worse for the US. We still think risks are we think skewed toward more EUR strength from potential European reforms and the EU pushing for trade deals elsewhere, assuming no EU-US trade escalation.

Nordea maintains a bearish stance; “Trump’s plan to deglobalise the US from the rest of the world presents a significant risk to the economy and financial market that is in danger of hurting investor confidence and trust which would be bad news for the dollar.”


Goldman Sachs notes that the Administration has dialled back tariff rhetoric.

It added; “However, after frequent changes in policy positions, we think it will take some time for investors to be convinced. Just as importantly, even after the exemptions and reversals, planned and actual tariff increases are still very large, and US businesses and consumers may be frozen by the uncertainty, which remains high and is why our economists are still on recession watch.”

Goldman also expects longer-term capital shifts; “We view the evidence that some investors have sold or hedged a portion of their Dollar assets largely as confirmation that they are unlikely to be adding to those positions with the same enthusiasm as before. Historically, these types of changes in investor appetite led to large, persistent changes in exchange rates.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts